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Syntegra Private Wealth Group

We work with a broad range of clients to provide comprehensive financial planning, while bringing cooperation, synergy and integrity to every client relationship.

Syntegra Private Wealth Group - 3Q 2020 Newsletter

Clients and Friends,

We hope this receives you well and that you enjoyed our last video.  In case you missed it, check out the link below to our advisors talking about dealing with Covid-19 and Back-to-School concerns.


Many of you are asking about the upcoming elections and the potential impact on your investments.  And while it may seem at times that “this election is different”, Adam Schickling, an economist in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, sums it up: “While historical performance is not a guarantee of future results, 150 years is a large enough data set to form reasonable future expectations. Discounting historical results under the guise of ‘this time is different’ is falling prey to a classic investing fallacy.”  His study analyzed more than 150 years of asset returns to see whether a relationship with electoral events existed.  The article is attached for your reference.  He concluded that there is a very modest, but statistically insignificant differential in stock market performance during Democratic vs Republican administrations, as well as during election years versus non-election years. 


We agree.  As trained and experienced advisors, we are unlikely to fall prey to common investment biases.  In particular there are a couple of such biases that an untrained investor may experience, as described by Investopedia:

  • Look ahead bias - Look-ahead bias often happens in "could have" scenarios, where an investor or other professional considers what is a missed opportunity in hindsight. What that person fails to realize is that they know more now looking back than they did at the time they made the decision. Therefore, it may be unwise to judge their—or others—past performance too harshly in retrospect, especially if key information was missing.  I like to describe investing as my rear-view mirror is always clearer than my windshield.  Projecting the rear-view mirror perspective when there is substantially different information presently, can cause poor investment decision making. --  We minimize this risk to your portfolios by increasing the sample size of available investment choices (mutual funds, stocks or ETFs as examples) and staying relevant to information available today.  On a weekly basis, we look at what we hold for you, what the available other choices are, and stay relevant to the current economic and investment climate.

 

  • Confirmation bias - Confirmation bias is a term from the field of cognitive psychology that describes how people naturally favor information that confirms their previously existing beliefs.  Experts in the field of behavioral finance identify that this fundamental principle applies to investors in notable ways. Because investors seek out information that confirms their existing opinions and ignore contrary information that refutes them, they may skew the value of their investing decisions based on their own cognitive biases. This psychological phenomenon occurs when investors filter out potentially useful facts and opinions that don’t coincide with their preconceived notion. --  We minimize this risk to your portfolios by seeking contrarian views, so that we make quality investment decisions that are in your near-term and long-term best interest.  Near-term may be ensuring your income or spending needs are covered for a 5+ years with cash and bonds.  Long-term may look forward for 10, 20, or 30 years.  This applies to retirees, pre-retirees and young investors alike.


The other topic at top-of-mind for many of you is the resiliency of the stock market and the rationale for the high equity prices.  The attached article from Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management correctly points out two logical reasons for this:

  • The price of a stock is simply based on the expected cash flows from that stock and the “time-value-of-money”, or said differently, the current interest rate environment.  When interest rates are low, the income streams expected from a stock (dividends, for example) become more valuable. 
  • The basic rule of supply and demand.  With interest rates being so low, investors have a lesser appetite for bonds, so equities become more attractive. 

 

Key Messages Today:

  • Look-ahead and confirmation bias can derail an investor from focusing on what is most important to achieve one’s goals.
  • Elections are statistically insignificant to making investment decisions.
  • There is a fundamental reason why the stock market remains buoyed. 
  • We are actively analyzing your financial plan, daily economic data, the investments that fit in your individual risk tolerance and matching investments with your specific needs.

 

We look forward to speaking with you or “GoTo” meeting with you soon.  Be safe, be healthy and be good.

Syntegra Private Wealth Group Featured Audiocast

Syntegra Private Wealth Group Featured Audiocast

This month's featured audiocast with the Syntegra Private Wealth Group team

For more audiocasts, please check out our Syntegra Speaker Series on the Community page

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Why you should choose us?

  • Built on a foundation of over 125 years combined experience in the financial planning industry.
  • We are a TEAM! You can rely on the advisors and supporting team members to provide the best possible advice and service, with the goal of enabling you to achieve your financial goals and dreams with peace of mind.
  • We are consistently ranked in various lists (Intra-company, Barron’s, Financial Times, Forbes) as top advisors in the industry*
  • You have the right to a financial analysis, plan and outlook WITHOUT extra fees.
  • *The CPAs on our team and the highly competent attorneys we work with will take a close look at your plans the first time at no additional cost to you. Together, we will create a synergistic plan for you.
  • We have well-thought-out diversification, accumulation and distribution strategies to help you achieve the lifestyle goals you have in mind for yourself.
  • We are here for YOU, we care about YOU and we have YOUR BEST INTEREST at heart. We operate with integrity, always.


* Securities America and its representatives do not provide tax advice.

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